Fed cuts US interest rates again despite ‘flying blind’

The US Federal Reserve pushed forward with an interest rate cut as inflation fears continue to take a backseat to concerns about a stalling labour market.

It came despite the US government shutdown, nearing its one-month mark, which left central bankers “flying blind” about the state of job market, economists said, because of a delay in official data.

The US central bank said on Wednesday it was lowering the target for its key lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, putting it in a range of 3.75% to 4%.

The Fed last month cut interest rates for the first time since last December. Economists expected the move to jump-start a series of additional reductions, easing borrowing costs across the US.

Two voting members on the Fed’s committee opposed the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Stephen Miran, who is on leave from his post leading US President Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, voted for a larger 0.5 percentage point cut. Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, voted to hold rates steady.

A slowdown in job hiring prompted the Fed to restart its rate cutting cycle in September. In a policy statement on Wednesday, the central bank reiterated that “job gains have slowed this year” and that the unemployment rate, though still low through the end of summer, has now “edged up”.

But the ongoing government shutdown has stalled the release of the official monthly jobs report for September, limiting central bankers’ insight into how the labour market has fared since their last meeting.

Alternative sources including private-sector data have pointed to an ongoing trend of sluggish hiring. The US economy lost 32,000 jobs in September, according to data from the payroll firm ADP.

The Labor Department did release inflation data for September last week. The figure, at 3% year-over-year, was slightly lower than economists had predicted, reinforcing the likelihood that rate-setters would vote to lower borrowing costs again.

Fears about tariff-driven inflation had taken centre stage earlier this year when Trump pushed forward with sweeping tariffs on many of the country’s largest trading partners.

Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. But while tariffs appear to be boosting some consumer prices, the milder-than-expected inflation reading for September allowed the Fed to focus on boosting the labour market by lowering rates, economists noted.

“Although inflation remains elevated, policymakers are slightly more focused on downside risks to the employment mandate,” economists at Bank of America wrote in a research note.

The Fed’s latest cut brings the target for its key lending rate down to its lowest level in three years.

Wall Street is betting on another quarter-point cut from the central bank at its last meeting of the year in December.

Investors have priced in a more than 80% chance of a December cut, according to CME FedWatch.

But a lot might still change before then. The Fed could receive three new jobs reports leading up to its December meeting, which could “significantly change perceptions of the labour market for better or worse”, Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JP Morgan, wrote in a note.

Powell has been under pressure from President Trump, who has repeatedly called on him to lower interest rates.

Trump on Monday floated the possibility that he will announce a replacement for Powell, whose term ends next May, by end the end of this year.